基本养老保险隐性债务规模精算分析——以江苏省为例  

Basic Old-Age Insurance Implicit Debt Scale Calculation Analysis——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：黄健元[1] 刘洋[2] 徐春兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学理学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第2期76-81,共6页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目(07EYB044)

摘　　要：隐性债务是在城镇职工养老保险制度改革中产生的突出问题。其规模的精算分析是妥善解决这一问题的基础性工作。因学界对其定义还没有形成统一认识,对隐性债务的精算也缺乏统一标准,致使测算结果差别较大。本文在对现有有关养老保险隐性债务概念借鉴分析的基础上,明确界定其内涵,由此构建基本养老保险隐性债务规模的精算模型。选择江苏省基本养老保险制度转轨初期(即1996年)以及2005年作为测算时点,分别对隐性债务的规模进行测算分析。由此得到隐性债务规模动态增长、"中人"隐性债务规模占大部分、女性隐性债务多于男性等结论;并提出应优先考虑解决或缩小"中人"以及女性的隐性债务等建议。The implicit debt is a prominent problem which arises in the city staff old-age insurance system re- form. Its scale＇s calculation analysis is essential for the solution of the problem. As a consensus definition has not been formed in the academic circle, and there is a lack of unified standards for the implicit debt＇s calculation, a reckoning result difference is caused. Profiting from the analysis on the existing related old-age insurance implicit debt concept, the paper makes a clear demarcation on its connotation, and on the basis of it constructs a basic old-age insurance implicit debt scale calculation model. The basic old-age insurance system initial transition pe- riod （ in 1996） as well as the year 2005 in Jiangsu Province is chosen as a reckoning point in time, and a reek- oning analysis is conducted separately on the implicit debt＇s scale. From this reached are the conclusions of the implicit debt scale dynamic growth,＂ the middle man＂ implicit debt scale occupying the majority, and the femi- nine implicit debt more than the male. And proposals are offered that primordial consideration should be taken of resolving or reducing＂ the middleman＂ as well as the feminine implicit debt.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 隐性债务 精算模型 测算 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]