煤岩动力灾害预测动态数据模型的构建及应用  

Construction of dynamic data model to predict coal or rock dynamic disasters and its Application

作　　者：肖红飞[1,2] 彭斌 

机构地区：[1]湖南省煤矿安全开采技术重点实验室,湖南湘潭411201 [2]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《矿业工程研究》2009年第2期38-41,共4页Mineral Engineering Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50604008);中国博士后基金(2005038559);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金

摘　　要：在非接触电磁辐射法动态预测煤岩动力灾害的基础上提出了一种新的动态数据建模法——均生函数预测模型.首先分析了均生函数模型构建的基本原理;其次利用电磁辐射监测仪测定的现场工作面电磁辐射信号时间数据序列,通过逐步回归筛选时间序列构造均生函数方程;然后以此拟合方程作为未来的预测模型,建立预测模式;最后运用实际测定的数据来验证该预报模式的预测准确率.预测实例表明,该数据机理预测模式的预报结果与实测结果是一致的,表明均生函数预测模型与电磁辐射预测方法的有机结合能有效地预测煤岩动力灾害以及提高预测的准确性.为煤岩灾害动力现象电磁辐射监测技术的研究提供了一种新的研究思路和方法.On the basis of prediction of coal or rock dynamic disasters by means of electromagnetic emission （EME） method which is a kind of non-contacting forecasting methods, a new dynamic data model has been proposed by use of an observed data series of EME signals in this paper. Firstly, the basic theorem of mean generation function construction is analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of the above experimental research, a new dynamic data model,mean generation function prediction medel,has been proposed by use of an observed data series of EME signals in this paper. By use of the stepwise regression method, a mean generation function equation which is retrieved from the time data series of in-situ EME signal is established. Finally, the above forecasting equation is used to predict the EME data in the future, and the prediction fitting value is compared with the practical data. Some computing cases are given which show that the forecasting accuracy of the mean generation function model is satisfactory, and the organic combination of EME method and mean generation function model can predict the coal or rock dynamic disasters efficiently. In this work, a new research idea and method is provided for prediction of rock or coal outburst based on EME prediction method.

关 键 词：煤岩动力灾害 均生函数预测模型 电磁辐射法 动态预测 时间序列 拟合 

分 类 号：TD76[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]