基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的发输电系统充裕度评估算法  

Research on adequacy evaluation algorithm of generation and transmission systems based on the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation

作　　者：张硕[1] 李庚银[1] 周明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《中国电力》2009年第7期10-14,共5页Electric Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAA14B05);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50877027);高等学校学科创新引智计划资助项目(B08013)

摘　　要：可靠性评估可为电力系统的规划及运行提供决策依据,使供电能够经济连续并保证电能质量。通过对充裕度算法和蒙特卡罗仿真研究,建立了基于序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法的发输电系统充裕度评估模型。同时建立了主要元件故障模型,并且应用深度优先搜索算法进行网络拓扑分析,考虑了由于潮流计算方法局限性导致潮流不收敛或线路潮流过大情况的处理,通过编制相应程序以IEEE-RBTS和IEEE-RTS79为例计算了可靠性指标,验证了该算法和模型的正确性及可行性,为电网的规划设计及其安全运行提供了有价值的参考依据。Reliability assessment could provide decision basis for planning and operation of power system, help the power system to provide economical and continuous electric energy and also guarantee the quality. By study on adequacy evaluation algorithm and Monte-Carlo simulation, an adequacy evaluation algorithm of generation and transmission systems based on the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation approach was presented. Also including the failure model of main system units, and depth priority algorithm were used to analyze the topology of network, as well as the solution of no convergence or too large of power flow because of the limitation of power flow algorithm. The reliability index of IEEE-RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 were calculated by corresponding software, The results of example calculation show that this algorithm and models arc correct and feasible, and will provide the valuable reference for wind farm operation and planning.

关 键 词：序贯蒙特卡罗仿真 发输电系统 充裕度评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]