How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China  

作　　者：陈活泼 孙建奇 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Climate Change Research Center(CCRC),Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2009年第4期773-782,共10页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No2009CB421406);the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-Q1-02;National Key Technologies R & D Program Project (Grant No 2007BAC03A01);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo 40631005)

摘　　要：Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.

关 键 词：PROJECTION summer precipitation ＂best＂ models ENSEMBLE 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]