北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化预报系统性能检验和评估  

Performance Tests and Evaluations of Beijing Local High-resolution Rapid Update Cycle System

作　　者：范水勇[1] 陈敏[1] 仲跻芹[1] 郑祚芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2009年第2期119-125,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：北京市科委国际合作项目(2007No.36);北京市科技计划课题(Z0006279040191);中国气象局北京区域气象中心科技创新基金项目(BRMCCJ200704)共同资助

摘　　要：为充分了解北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化预报系统(简称BJ-RUC)的业务预报性能,对该系统在2007年汛期的预报结果采用客观检验方法进行了检验和评估,并针对典型个例进行分析,得到如下结论:BJ-RUC系统预报性能稳定,具有较好的预报参考价值;常规预报量的检验表明,3km分辨率的预报无论是高空还是地面预报量都要优于9km的预报;降水预报检验表明,3km分辨率无论是降水时段、落区和雨量均较9km分辨率有更好的预报效果,尤其是大量级降水的预报。但BJ-RUC系统对局地对流降水的预报能力仍然有限,在前6h的预报仍然差于后面时段的预报。To understand clearly the operational performance of Beijing high-resolution Rapid Update Cycle （BJ-RUC） system, the operational forecasts during the flood season of 2007 were verified and evaluated by objective verification method and a precipitation incident was analyzed. Some encouraged conclusions were given as follows： BJ-RUC system had stable forecast performance and could provide good forecast reference; from the verification scores to sounding and surface observations, 3 km- resolution forecast were better than that of 9 km-resolution; the verification scores of precipitation forecast showed that 3 km- resolution one could forecast the precipitation period, location and intensity better, especially for the high intensity precipitation. But precipitation forecast capability of RUC system was still not perfect and the first 6 h forecast was still worse than the latter period forecast. We need more work on it.

关 键 词：BJ—RUC系统 客观检验 3 km分辨率 9 km分辨率 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]