AREM对2008年西南地区低温雨雪天气预报能力的检验  

Verification of Prediction Capability of AREM on Low Temperature,Rain,Snow and Frost over Southwestern China in 2008

作　　者：肖玉华[1] 何光碧[2] 陈静 顾清源[1] 高文良[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2009年第2期152-156,共5页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z01);中国气象局基本业务建设项目;2007年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)2007-6-12)共同资助

摘　　要：采用客观检验方法,就AREM模式对2008年初发生在我国南方的低温雨雪冰冻过程的预报进行了检验。检验结果表明:AREM模式对地面气温预报比较成功,对降温过程显著的成都、重庆、贵阳三站的降温起止时间,降温过程中温度的时间演变特征预报均与实况吻合较好,且预报温度值误差亦较小;对降温不明显的昆明和拉萨站,模式较好地预报出了温度的波动,只是预报温度值误差较大,尤以拉萨为最。此外,AREM模式对此次过程的最大降温区也有较好的预报。从过程平均的Ts评分看,AREM的降水预报能力相对弱于T213和日本模式。By the objective method, this paper was to verify the prediction of AREM, a regional mesoscale model, during the ＂historically rare＂ low temperature period with rain, snow and frost disaster occurred over the southern China in early 2008. The results show that AREM made a satisfactory prediction Of air temperature at 2 meter above the ground. For Chengdu, Chongqing and Guiyang where the temperature declined remarkably, AREM predicted correctly not only the beginning and ending time of temperature drop but also the temperature evolvement, except the small prediction error; as for Kunming and Lasa where the temperature fall were not as remarkable as the other three stations, AREM predicted the waves of the temperature during this period in despite of the relatively larger prediction error, especially Lasa. AREM also correctly predicted the sites with the maximum falling temperature. According to the process-averaged Ts score, AREM was inferior to T213 and Japanese model in precipitation prediction.

关 键 词：AREM模式 低温雨雪冰冻灾害 预报检验 西南地区 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]