贸易对中日韩经济周期协动性的影响研究  

Effects of Trade on Business Cycle Co-movements among China,Japan,and Korea

作　　者：石柱鲜[1] 黄红梅[2] 邓创[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [3]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2009年第4期60-66,共7页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：吉林大学"985工程""中国宏观经济分析与预测"创新基地项目;教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题"中国经济转轨时期增长轨迹与特征的实证研究"(05JJD790006);国家社科基金项目"中日韩三国经济周期波动及其主要影响因素的比较研究"(06BGJ021);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"潜在产出与自然利率在我国经济周期波动分析中的应用研究"(08JC790044);中国博士后科学基金项目"全球化背景下我国经济波动的特征与货币政策调控有效性研究"(20080440144)

摘　　要：对中日韩贸易对经济周期协动性的影响进行分析,可以得出结论:双边贸易强度对经济周期协动性的影响取决于双边产业内贸易强度的大小。产业内贸易强度大,则双边贸易强度与经济周期协动性为正相关;产业内贸易强度小,则双边贸易强度与经济周期协动性为负相关。另外,中日贸易中纺织纱线等6种行业的贸易有助于提高经济周期协动性,而服装等2种行业的贸易降低经济周期协动性;中韩贸易中有色金属相关行业等6种行业的贸易有助于提高经济周期协动性,而塑料等2种行业的贸易降低经济周期协动性。This paper studies the effects of bilateral trade on business cycle co- movements among China, Japan, and Korea. We conclude that the effects of bilateral trade intensity on business cycle co - movements of these countries lie on the size of intrs - industry trade intensity. When intra - industry trade intensity is large, bilateral trade intensity and business cycle co - movements are positively correlated. When intra - industry trade intensity is small, bilateral trade intensity and business cycle co - move- ments are negatively correlated. Trades of textile fibers and in other 5 sectors between China and Japan will promote business cycle co - movements, and trades of clothing and in another sector between China and Japan will reduce business cycle co - move. ments. Trades of non - ferrous metals related 6 sectors between China and Korea will promote business cycle co - movements, and trades of plastic and in another sector between China and Korea will reduce business cycle co -movements.

关 键 词：中日韩 经济周期协动性 贸易强度 分行业贸易 滚动相关系数 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易]