煤与瓦斯突出危险性的突变级数法预测  

Prediction of Catastrophe Progression Method for Coal and Gas Outburst

作　　者：张天军[1] 任树鑫[1] 李树刚[2] 许鸿杰 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学理学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学能源学院,陕西西安710054 [3]新疆时代石油工程有限公司,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《陕西能源职业技术学院学报》2009年第2期10-13,共4页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（50874089,50534049）;陕西省教育厅专项科研基金（80JK366）

摘　　要：根据影响煤与瓦斯突出的主要因素建立了综合评价指标体系及煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测模型。按照不同指标的影响程度，对各个指标体系进行了标准变换。根据8个突出矿井的突出资料，确定了突变级数值，并对此突变级数值进行了验证。结果表明：突变级数法将多维问题转化为一维问题进行求解，简化了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测中的求解步骤。依据所确定的发生煤与瓦斯突出的突变级数值进行预测，其准确率达到87．5％。According to the major factors that influence coal and gas outbursts, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established and a coal and gas outburst predicting model was set up. Standard transformation was done for each index system in terms of the influential degrees of different indexes. Catastrophe progression value was determined based on the data from eight outburst mines, and the value was verified. The study shows that converting multi- dimensional problems into one -dimensional problems using catastrophe progression method simplifies the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts. When the determined catastrophe progression value is used to predict coal and gas outbursts, the predicting accuracy rate is as high as 87.5%. Different coal mines have different factors that induce outbursts, and the factors have different importance.

关 键 词：预测 突变级数 煤与瓦斯突出 

分 类 号：TD713.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]