基于分形的中国地均农畜产品虚拟水规模分布的时空演变研究  

Spatial-temporal Distribution of Crop-livestock Product Virtual Water Per Cultivated Land in China Based on Fractal Theory

作　　者：孙才志[1] 张蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《地理科学》2009年第3期402-408,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(07BJY066)资助

摘　　要：虚拟水是当今水科学的研究热点，被认为是解决粮食与水资源安全的重要策略。在测算中国各地区农畜产品虚拟水总量的基础上，计算出1996—2006年中国农畜产品虚拟水与耕地资源的基尼系数，表明二者地区差异不大且在逐年减小。运用位序一规模法则，探讨差异背后的分形特征。研究表明：中国地均农畜产品虚拟水体系不具有首位分布的特征；双对数回归方程拟合度较高，符合位序一规模分布；分维值D大于l，且逐年升高，地均农畜产品虚拟水规模分布整体差距在缩小，均衡程度在增强；规模分布呈双分形结构，体现出地均农畜产品虚拟水大规模省市发展较慢且辐射带动作用较弱，中小规模的省市比较发育且发展较快。本文旨在揭示地均农畜产品虚拟水的空间分异特征规律，为制定不同区域类型的农业发展决策提供相应的理论参考。Virtual water has become the central issue of water sciences, and has been regarded as a main countermeasure to solve risks of food security and water security. On the base of calculating the total quantity of main crop-livestock product virtual water, this paper calculated the Gini coefficient of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land and the result showed that the Gini coefficient of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land were less than 0. 4 （warning limit） from 1996 to 2006, which indicated that the spatialtemporal differences of crop-livestock product virtual water verse cultivated land was slowly decreasing. This paper analyzed changes of the virtual water per cultivated land in the provinces of China from 1996 to 2006. Then, according to the theory of primate city distribution and rank and size law which have been frequently used in urban geography since the 1920s, based on the data of thirty provinces of China this paper used the rank and size curves to explain virtual water per cultivated land size distribution, which can probed into the internal difference mechanic of fractal feature. The result showed that virtual water per cultivated land size distribution didn＇ t follow primate city distribution, and the coefficient of determination （ R^2 ） about the model of the bi-fractals were more than 0.975. The rank and size double logarithm regression of the virtual water per cultivated land accords with the Pareto distribution well, and the size and its rank turn out to follow the rank-size distribution. Meanwhile,the fractal dimension D was more than 1 and slowly decreased by year, which showed the spatial differences of the virtual water per cultivated land in provinces of China reduced and the equilibrium tended to strengthen. The rank and size distribution took on bi-fractals structure. The conclusion showed that large-scale provinces devel- oped more slowly than medium-or small-scale provinces, and leading function of these large-scale provinces was limite

关 键 词：地均农畜产品虚拟水 基尼系数 位序-规模法则 双分形结构 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]