丽江7.0级地震中期及短临预报——以洱源水动态资料为例  

THE MEDIUM AND SHORT-IMPENDING PREDICTION FOR THE M 7 0 LIJIANG EARTHQUAKE-TAKING WATER REGIME DATA FROM ERYUAN AS AN EXAMPLE

作　　者：杨述文 

机构地区：[1]洱源县地震办公室

出　　处：《地震研究》1998年第3期221-226,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：１９９６年２月３日中甸———丽江交界发生７０级地震，震前，洱源县地震办公室根据洱源地区水氡月均值滑动标准差、月均值滑动距平、１２个月雨量滑动等中期背景异常和水氡日测值、水温日测值、日均气压值等的短临异常，结合地震趋势预测意见进行了认真地综合分析，作出了较好的短临预报并报告县委、县人民政府。本文对这次地震的预报及前兆异常进行分析讨论。A strong earthquake with M 7 0 occurred in the border between Zhongdian and Lijiang at 41 8′,19∶14 on Feb 3, 1996.Based on the medium-term background anomalies in Eryuan,including shifting standard error of mothly mean value and shifting monthly mean value of radon in groundwater and precipitation shift in twelve months and the short-impending anomalies in Eryuan,including daily observation value of radon in groundwater,daily observation value of water temperature and daily mean pressure value,Seismological Office of Eryuan County made a short-impending prediction through comprehensive analysis in combingation with the trend prediction result and reported it to the County Party Committee and the County Goverment before the earthquake.In this paper,the prediction and precusor anomalies are analysed and discussed.

关 键 词：地震 前兆异常 短临预报 地震预报 中期预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]