对阿图什6.9级、乌苏南5.8级地震的中短期预报研究  

The Study of Medium and Short term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (MS=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M S=5.8)

作　　者：江在森[1,2] 赵振才[1,2] 王海涛 王继英[1,2] 王双绪[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局第二地形变监测中心 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局

出　　处：《中国地震》1998年第2期184-189,共6页Earthquake Research in China

摘　　要：简述了对新疆阿图什６９级、乌苏南５８级地震的中短期（填卡）预报研究过程。把地震大形势分析与大地形变资料确定的中长期地震危险区、全国会商圈定的中期、年度地震危险区研究相结合，判断地震危险区中紧迫程度高的地区；把大区域地震活动与大地形变演化特征相结合，进行大区域地震形势跟踪分析，判定１年尺度强震活动的主要区带；尽可能利用更多的资料信息，对长、中、短时间域和大、中、小空间域资料信息的定性综合分析等，实现预测区域由大到小的逼近，取得了较好的预报效果。对地震预报的一些问题进行了讨论。In this paper, the process of medium and short term prediction (filling in the special card) for Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and Usunan earthquake (M S=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The urgent seismic risk regions are judged from such risk regions as determined long and medium term seismic risk regions with geodetic deformation data, and drawn medium term seismic risk region and annual seismic risk regions by the whole nation seismologic consideration, combining with large seismic situation analysis. We trace analysis about the situation in large area, and judge principal risk region or belt of seismic activity in a year, through integrate large area seismicity and geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As more as possible using information, study synthetically observation information for long, medium and short terms (time domain) and large medium small dimensions (space domain), approach the forecast region of the forthcoming earthquake from large to small. The better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction have benn discussed.

关 键 词：地震 中期预报 短期预报 地震预报 综合分析 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]