全球金融危机爆发的原因及其对中国经济的影响  

Cause of Global Financial Crisis and Impact on China’s Economy

作　　者：谢杰[1] 张海森[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,310018 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2009年第7期3-10,共8页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家发改委能源研究所国际合作项目“中国进出口结构变化与经济、能源关系及对策研究”(G-0706-09214);对外经济贸易大学“211工程”三期重点学科建设项目“开放型农业和贸易政策研究”(32021);“我国大宗农产品贸易政策协调研究”(33042);国家自然科学基金项目“农业立体污染防治补偿机制及调控体系研究”(70573115)的资助

摘　　要：美国次贷危机引发了肆掠全球的金融危机,其直接原因是美国国内的产业、金融政策错误,以及华尔街的贪婪与金融监管失误,而深层次原因是全球经济失衡与技术创新的周期性。本文应用时间序列模型验证了美国经济衰退对中国对美出口的显著影响,使用GTAP模型估算了全球经济衰退对中国经济的影响,结果显示:纺织、石化、电子等中国主要出口行业产出增长将进一步大幅下降。建议我国通过调整收入分配结构、扶持民营企业发展以扩大内需,并走创新发展道路,以应对危机下世界经济衰退的挑战。The global financial crisis was triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, the direct causes of which are American domestic industry, financial policy fault, Wall Street＇s greed, and flaws of supervision, but the root reason is global economic unbalance and technological innovation periodicity. This paper applies time series model to confirm that American economic recession has remark- able influence on China＇s export to USA. This paper also uses GTAP model to explore the possible economic effects of global economic decline on China＇s economy. The main results and suggestions are as follows： there will be large decrease in the output growth of textile sector, petroleum processing ＆ chemical sector, and electronic products sector. To cope with the challenges from world economic recession, China should adjust the income distribution and support private enterprises to expand China＇s domestic demand, and take innovation development path at the same time.

关 键 词：全球金融危机 中国经济 GTAP 新技术革命 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学] F12