中国沿岸近期多年月平均海面随机动态分析  

Stochastic dynamical analyses for monthly mean sea level along the coast of China

作　　者：田晖[1] 陈宗镛[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛海洋大学高教研究室

出　　处：《海洋学报》1998年第4期9-16,共8页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：本文以最大熵谱分析了中国沿岸１５个站１９７１～１９９５年月平均海面序列，得出中国沿岸月平均海面的主要振动为年振动和半年振动，而主要低频周期在中国北方各站为１８．６ａ，从长途至厦门各站为９ａ左右。然后以随机动态拟合分析方法计算出中国沿岸月平均海面相对上升速率范围为（１．０７±０．８３）ｍｍ／ａ，并同时指出该方法计算出的上升速率受时段长度及低频周期的影响．最后，给出了中国沿岸月平均海面变异的时空分布，并说明了厄尔尼诺现象主要影响中国南部沿海的月均海面．By using method of maxinum entropy spectrum , this paper analyses monthly mean sea level (MMSL) of 15 stations along the coast of China during the period of 1971 ～ 1995 and finds out that the main oscilations in these stations are one year and half year oscilalions , and the main low frequency period is 18. 6 a in northern China, but 9 a or so in southern China. Then, the range of MMSL raising rate of (1. 07 ± 0. 83) mm/a along the coast of China is given by the method of stochastic dynamical prediction, in the mean time, it is pointed out that the estimation of raising rate by using this method is affected by the length of MM- SL sequences and the low frequency periods. Finally , the contour plot of MMSL anomality along the coast of China during the study period is given , and it can be seen that the El Nino event mainly affect. MMSL of southern China.

关 键 词：月平均海平面 海平面上升速率 随机动态分析 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]