西太平洋热带地区环流低频变化的主振荡型预测试验  

FORECAST EXPERIMENTS FOR LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION IN WEST PACIFIC USING PRINCIPAL OSCILLATION PATTERN ANALYSIS

作　　者：杨秋明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1998年第3期345-341,共1页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：用１９９４年逐日西太平洋热带地区２００ｈＰａ纬向风场资料建立主振荡预测模型，对低频纬向风场（３０～５０天）的传播进行独立预报试验．试验结果表明，在夏半年１０９次预测中提前１５天预报的相关预报技巧在０．５０以上．它是揭示低频时空演变的有效工具．同时也讨论了有关模型参数的选取方法．he principal oscillation pattern (POP) models are set up based on the daily data of zonal wind at 200 hPa in tropical West Pacific in 1994, and the independent forecast experiments of POP models are performed for the propagation of the low frequency on the 30～50 day time scale. The results show that the skill score of correlation prediction up to 15 days ahead of time could reach more than 0.50 in the 109 forecasts during the northern summer. It is a useful analysis tool to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of low frequency oscillation. Furthermore, the method of selecting the parameters is also discussed.

关 键 词：西太平洋 热带地区 环流 低频变化 低频振荡 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学] P443.4