数值预报产品在三峡坝区初夏强降水预报中的释用  

Interpretation and Utilization of Numerical Prediction Products in Heavy Rainfall Prediction of the Three Gorges Dam Area in Early Summer

作　　者：宋春远 熊传辉 罗剑琴 饶传新 闫居玲 李芳 

机构地区：[1]湖北省宜昌市气象局,443000

出　　处：《气象》2009年第6期96-99,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用1992—2001年5—6月期间日本数值预报产品(FSFE02、FSFE03)、宜昌单站探空资料以及单站大气能量资料,对照三峡气象站降水资料,从中找出相关性较好的预报因子,应用基于费歇准则的判别分析方法,建立三峡坝区初夏(5—6月)强降水预报模型,从而对日本数值预报产品进行释用。经2002—2007年预报检验,该模型预报准确率和概括率分别为77%和89%,预报效果较好。该预报模型具有一定的实用性。The good relativity prediction factors are found from the data which include Japan＇s numerical prediction products （FSFE02, FSFE03 ） of May and June during 1992 to 2001, Yichang singleounding station, the atmospheric energy and the Three Gorges Dam Area precipitation. The mathematical statistics method based on Fisher discriminate analysis is applied. Heavy precipitation model of the Three Gorges Dam Area in early summer （May to June） is established to interpretate and utilize the Japan＇s numerical prediction products. Through the forecast test during 2002 - 2007, the forecasting model accuracy and generalization rate are 77 % and 89 % respectively, the test result is satisfactory. The forecasting model has a certain practicability.

关 键 词：数值预报 能量 强降水 预报模型 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434