中国教育收益率统计估计与分析——基于参数和半参数估计方法的比较  

The Estimation and Analysis of the Rate of Return on Education in China——A comparison of parametric and semiparametric estimation methods

作　　者：钱争鸣[1] 易莹莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2009年第7期43-50,共8页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学2007年度重大项目基金(07JJD790145)的资助

摘　　要：本文分别运用参数和半参数估计方法,就如何更准确有效测度中国教育收益率作深入探讨。利用CHNS数据对我国1989年至2006年的教育收益率进行估计,并采用Hausman检验法对两种估计方法结果进行检验。结果表明,从估计效率看,前者比后者的效率更高;但从估计效果看,后者才是一致性估计。而且我们发现虽然教育收益率整体呈逐渐增加趋势,但与实物资本收益率相比仍偏低。中国的教育和劳动力市场亟需加大投资和改革力度。This paper uses CHNS data to estimate the rate of return on education in China during 1989 to 2006 based on Mincer wages function. We apply parametric and semiparametric methods to estimate the models, and further compare these two models using the Hausman test. The results indicate that the former is more efficient than the latter from the perspective of estimation efficiency, but it is opposite from the perspective of estimation accuracy. In other words, the latter is a consistent estimator while the former is a biased one. Moreover, despite the fact that the rate of return on education trends toward a gradual increase, it is still much lower than the rate of return on capital in kind. Both the education market and the labor market in China need substantial investments and substantive reforms.

关 键 词：教育收益率 选择偏差 参数估计 半参数估计 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]