基于AHP的群决策风险评估方法  

Risk assessment method for group decision-making with AHP

作　　者：陈治宏[1] 卢国明[1] 吴晓华[1] 郝玉洁[1] 李建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院,成都610054

出　　处：《计算机应用》2009年第B06期125-127,145,共4页journal of Computer Applications

基　　金：国家863计划项目(2007AA01Z423);四川省科技厅项目(2008SG0027);中国工程物理研究院重大基金项目(2006Z0604)

摘　　要：运用层次分析法对一信息系统进行风险评估,以风险发生的概率、风险的影响、风险的不可控性作为层次模型中准则层的元素,采用群决策的方式确定风险因素相对于准则层各元素的层次单排序,专家的权重由其所构造的判断矩阵与其他矩阵之间的相似程度来确定,然后采用加权几何平均的算法将专家的判断聚合为一个共识度矩阵。Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method was applied to assess the risk of an information system. The criterion hierarchy in the structure of AHP included three factors, probability, influence and uneontrollability. The weight of risk factors based on the criterion hierarchy was decided by group decision. The decision maker＇s weight is determined by the comparability degree of their own judgment matrix from other matrices, and then a consensus matrix was obtained from aggregating these decision maker＇s matrices by the method of weighted geometric mean.

关 键 词：风险评估 层次分析法 群决策 共识度矩阵 

分 类 号：TP309[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]