对转变生猪业发展和调控方式的若干思考及建议  

Thinking and Recommendations on the Change of Ways for the Swine Development and Regulation

作　　者：王东阳[1] 程广燕[1] 肖红波[1] 韩洁[1] 卢丽娜[1] 东湖 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2009年第7期9-12,共4页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：2009年中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助

摘　　要：本研究认为,目前我国生猪已出现供大于求的苗头,未来有可能进一步加剧,其价格将进入过度下跌区间。其主要原因在于前期存栏生猪大量集中上市,能繁母猪存栏量大,生猪屠宰量刚性增长,猪肉产品出口难度加大。政策性效应、繁育增殖性效应和市场周期性效应的重合叠加,使生猪价格在短期内难以回调。建议加快转变生猪业发展和调控方式,及时调整生猪生产规模和结构,转向生猪行业的全程调节,加快规模化、一体化和产业化发展。This study believes that swine production in China has shown signs of oversupply,and it is likely to further exacerbate,and the price will be in the range of over decline in the future.The main reason is that a large number of swine in stock enters the market in a concentrated period,there are large stocks of breeding sow,the volume of pig slaughtering grow rigidly,and pork exports turn to be more difficult.Policy related effects,effects of breeding proliferation,and market cyclical effects coincidence simultaneously,which causes the difficulty for the callback of live pig price in the short term.It proposed to speed up the changes of live pigs development and regulation,to timely adjust the size and structure of pig production,to adopt the whole pig industry regulation,to speed up the scale,integration and industrial development for swine industry.

关 键 词：生猪业 发展方式 周期性波动 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]