电力系统在线运行风险评估与决策  

Online operational risk assessment and decision making for power systems

作　　者：吴文传[1] 宁辽逸[1] 张伯明[1] 孙宏斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2009年第2期28-34,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50707013)

摘　　要：电网运行风险评估可以综合考虑扰动事件发生的可能性与严重性,是电网确定性安全分析的有益补充.分析在线环境下运行风险评估与传统可靠性研究之间的关系,讨论在线运行风险评估的特性和关键问题;重点探讨瞬态时变的设备停运模型、缺乏统计数据情况下的建模方法、快速评估算法和基于风险决策模型的数学含义等。运行风险技术可以从系统和设备2个层面对导致系统故障的累积性风险因素和突发性风险因素进行建模,并可以应用到状态检修优化决策等领域,具有广阔的应用前景.Power system operation risk assessment can synthetically analyze the likelihood and severity of disturbance events. It is a useful complementarity for power system security analysis. The relationship between the operational risk assessment and traditional reliability evaluation is well analyzed in this paper. Some key problems existed in online operation risk assessment are discussed. The time-varying component outage model, the component outage model with limited statistical failure data, some fast state assessment algorithm and the models of risk based decision making for pre-control are analyzed. The operational risk assessment can model for cumulated risk factors and emergency risk factors in power systems and power component. It has wide application foreground, and can be applied in power systems optimization decision for condition based maintenance.

关 键 词：运行风险评估 安全评估 可靠性评估 决策 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]