宁夏一次短时暴雨天气的跟踪预报分析  

Analysis on Tracking and Prediction of a Short-time Storm Caused by Severe Convection in Ningxia

作　　者：聂晶鑫 陆晓静[1,2] 李蓉[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象台,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《干旱气象》2009年第2期185-189,共5页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金项目"宁夏区域内风能资源时空变化特征研究"(NZ08157)资助

摘　　要：用卫星云图、雷达对2008年8月7日强对流天气产生的暴雨过程跟踪观测资料,结合自动站地面降水实况和WRF模式风场资料进行短时预报分析。结果表明:扩散东移冷空气和副热带高压边缘偏南暖湿气流的共同影响下,大气层结不稳定发生强烈的强对流天气;利用卫星云图,新一代天气雷达基本反射率强度图、0.5°仰角基本速度图和风廓线产品跟踪监测,综合分析预报短时暴雨天气是有效的方法。The severe convective storm process occurred on August 7 of 2008 was analyzed by using the satellite images, radar products, the hourly rainfall data from automatic weather station and the simulated data of WRF model. The results show that the cold air and the south warm - wet air at the edge of west Pacific subtropical high resulted in atmospheric stratification being extremely unstable, so the severe convective weather occurred ; it is an effective method for the uowcasting of short - time storm process using satellite images and new generation weather radar products such as Base Reflectivity, Base Velocity （at 0.5° elevation） , Wind Profile and so on.

关 键 词：WRF模式 卫星云图 天气雷达产品 局地暴雨过程 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]