税收、财政支出政策与宏观经济运行的内在影响机制——基于中国不同省份的面板数据分析  

The Effect of Taxation,Fiscal Expenditure Policies on Macroeconomic Function——Based on the Panel Data of Different Provinces in China

作　　者：刘长生[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉首大学旅游学院,湖南张家界427000 [2]中山大学岭南学院,广州510275

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2009年第3期47-54,共8页Journal of Public Management

摘　　要：财政政策对经济运行的影响是宏观经济研究的核心问题。但相关文献都侧重于财政支出、税收等对宏观经济的单方面影响。本文构建了基于财政支出、税收的内生经济增长模型。从模型推导可知,在给定税收、财政支出政策的变化路径时,税率与经济增长存在"倒-U"型关系,政府投资性支出与经济增长之间正相关,社会福利不仅与政府支出规模有关,还受到其支出结构的影响。实证检验显示,在我国经济运行中,总产出、消费、投资、政府支出、税率、利息率、工资水平之间存在长期均衡关系,且存在最优宏观税率,政府投资性支出对经济增长率存在正向影响,但对社会福利的影响存在不确定性,且在不同经济区域上存在较大差异性。这说明财政支出、收入政策的稳定性,差异性的区域税收制度安排和政府支出结构,有利于不同区域经济发展。The function of fiscal policy for macroeconomic is a kernel issue in macroeconomics. However, relative literatures mainly focus either on fiscal expenditure or on taxation which affects macroeconomic. The paper establishes an endogenous economic growth model based on fiscal expenditure and taxation. From this model,we can conclude that after giving the changing path of taxation and fiscal expenditure policies, economy will attain competitive decentralized equilibrium. There is an inverse-U relation between the rate of taxation and economic growth, and a positive relation between governmental investment expenditure and economic growth. Social welfare may be affected by governmental expenditure scale and structure. Making use of panel data of different provinces in China to test it,there exists a long term equilibrium relation among general output,consumption,investment,governmental investment expenditure, the rate of taxation and interest, wage in Chinese economic system, and exists a competitive decentralized equilibrium. Also the best rate of macroeconomic taxation is 28.63% and there is a positive relation between governmental investment expenditure and the rate of economic development, but its effect on social welfare is not certain and has a large regional difference. This accounts for that the stability of fiscal expenditure policy and taxation policy, different regional taxation system arrangement and governmental expenditure structure will be in favor of different regional economic growth.

关 键 词：税收政策 财政支出 内生经济增长 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]