教练员的价值:基于中国足球职业联赛的实证分析  

Coach Value:Based on Truth Analysis of Chinese Football Professional League Match

作　　者：刘冰[1,2] 马宇[1] 许启发[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院经济学院,山东烟台264005 [2]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [3]山东工商学院统计学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《体育科学》2009年第7期19-28,F0003,共11页China Sport Science

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2006H11)

摘　　要：实证研究了中国足球职业俱乐部教练员的价值,主要围绕教练员更换的主要原因、教练员更换与球队成绩的因果关系和关联程度、教练员更替的个人特征与球队成绩之间关系等问题展开讨论。研究表明,影响中国足球俱乐部更换教练员的主要因素为上期胜率和球队管理风格;教练员更替的路径分析显示,教练员更替、引进球员和前赛季成绩都对本期胜率产生显著影响,其中,"教练员更替"因素对球队当期成绩有负向影响,支持了"管理者更替恶性循环理论";最优更替类型的选择顺序依次为赛季间内部更替、无更替、赛季间外部更替、赛季内内部更替、赛季内外部更替;"教练员能力"因素对球队成绩具有明显的作用,而"年龄"因素作用并不明显。This paper studied the Chinese football professional club coach value, mainly involves the main cause, coach changes and the team result causal relation and the connection degree, individual characteristic and the team performance. The result shows that the main factors affect- ing the Chinese football club changes coach are win rate for the last time and the team manage- ment style. The route analysis demonstrates that coach changes, introduces the player and the last season result all wins to this time rate has the remarkable influence.＇Among it, coach chan- ges to the team achievement has negative influence, supported the superintendent change vicious circle theory. Most superior change type choice order is in turn the season internal change, the no change, the season in exterior change, the season internal change, and the season internal and external changes. Coach ability factor has obvious function to the team performance, but the age factor function is not obvious.

关 键 词：教练员 价值 足球 职业联赛 中国 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]