农村劳动力流动的影响因素分析——基于生存分析的视角  

Influence Factors of Rural Labor Flow in China Based on Perspective of Survival Analysis

作　　者：张世伟[1] 赵亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2009年第4期101-106,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(05BJY026);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(05JJD790079);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-05-0318)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：农村劳动力向城市流动的影响因素一直是发展经济学研究的主题之一。依据吉林省调查数据,本文运用生存分析的方法,分别从非参数分析、半参数分析和参数分析三个层次对农村劳动力流动的影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明,男性劳动力的流动性比女性劳动力的流动性强;受教育程度对女性劳动力流动性的影响不显著,对男性劳动力的流动倾向有显著的正向影响;健康状况与农村劳动力流动性负相关;家庭劳动力数量与农村劳动力流动性负相关;技术等级和耕地面积等其他因素对农村劳动力流动性的影响不明显。因此,政府应当进一步加大对农村教育的投入,完善农村教育体系,重视农村劳动力的技术培训,努力提高农村劳动力的整体素质和就业能力,促进农村劳动力合理有序地向城市流动。Influence factors of rural labor flow to cities have been one of the main themes in development economics research. By using the survey data in rural areas of Jilin Province, the article applied survival analysis, from three levels of non-parametric analysis, semi-parametric analysis and parameters analysis to analyze the influence factors of rural labor flow. The results show： the mobility of men is stronger than women＇ s; education level is not affected women＇s mobility significantly, and it has significant positive impact on men＇ s; the health of rural labor has a negative impact on rural labor flow; the number of household labor force has negative influence to rural labor flow; technical level, fanning area and other factors were not obvious. The government should further increase investment in education in rural areas, improve rural education system, attach importance to the nnal labor skill training and strive to improving the overall quality of the rural labor and employment capacity to promote the rural labor flow to cities rationally and orderly .

关 键 词：农村劳动力 劳动力流动 生存分析 非参数分析 半参数分析 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]