一种新的多学科系统不确定性分析方法——协同不确定性分析法  

New Method for Uncertainty Analysis in Multidisciplinary System—Collaborative Uncertainty Analysis

作　　者：袁亚辉[1] 黄洪钟[1] 张小玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学机械电子工程学院,成都610054

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2009年第7期174-182,共9页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划;2007AA04Z403);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20060614016)资助项目

摘　　要：多学科设计优化中的不确定性对整个工程系统的设计过程具有非常重要的影响。对现存的不确定性定义进行比较和分类。详细描述多学科系统中的不确定性及其传播过程。在已有不确定性分析方法的基础上,提出一种新的多学科不确定性分析方法——协同不确定性分析法。该方法的基本思想是利用泰勒近似估算耦合变量和系统输出的方差,经过二次优化获得系统的稳健最优解,并对其具体计算过程进行详细描述。算例结果表明,协同不确定性分析法不仅是可行的,而且具有很高的精度,是分析多学科系统中不确定性的有效方法。Uncertainties in multidisciplinary design optimization （MDO） have a significant influence on the whole design process of the engineering system. The existing definitions of uncertainties are compared and classified. The uncertainties in multidisciplinary system and their propagation processes are described in detail. On the basis of the existing methods for uncertainty analysis, a new method for uncertainty analysis in multidisciplinary, i.e. collaborative uncertainty analysis （CUA）, is proposed, and its particular computational process is described in detail. The CUA is an approach that utilizes Taylor approximation to evaluate the variance of the coupled variables and the system outputs, and then obtains the robust optimum solution through quadratic optimization. The computational results of the example indicate that the collaborative uncertainty analysis method （CUA） is not only feasible but also has very high accuracy, and it is an effective method to analyze the uncertainties in multidisciplinary system.

关 键 词：多学科设计优化 多学科系统 不确定性 不确定性传播 协同 

分 类 号：V421.1[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]