我国天然气产量的优化组合预测与分析  

China's Natural Gas Production Forecast and Analysis Based on Combination Model

作　　者：李君臣[1] 董秀成[1] 高建[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京102249

出　　处：《未来与发展》2009年第7期65-69,共5页Future and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划(编号:90610033);国家社会科学基金青年项目(编号:06BJY042)的资助

摘　　要：天然气越来越受到各方面的重视。为了更好地判断天然气产量的未来走势,对天然气产业发展提供决策依据,其产量预测是十分必要的。在总结前人提出的著名的产量预测模型Hub-bert模型、HCZ模型和广义翁氏模型的基础上,提出优化组合预测模型。该模型综合了单个模型的信息,预测结果更具有可信度。预测显示,我国天然气产量正处在快速上升的阶段,极值产量为3869.7亿m3,极值时间为2046年;进一步分析可知,我国中西部地区是天然气产量的主要来源,海上将成为天然气产量的新增长点;天然气正迎来其发展的"黄金时期",其能优化我国能源消费结构,对石油形成重要的战略接替,从而推动我国油气工业的新发展。Natural gas attracts more and more attention in China. Oil production forecast is important to analyze production tendency and make strategy decisions. The combination forecast model, which combines the famous Hubbert model, HCZ model and Generalized Weng model together to be more precise, is taken to forecast China＇s natural gas production. The result shows that the production is increasing fast and it will get the maximum 386.97 billion cubic meters in 2046. With further analysis, it shows that China＇s middle and west will be the main source of natural gas production, and offshore production will also increase fast. Now it＇s the ＂golden time＂ for natural gas development. It can optimize the structure of China＇s energy consumption and substitute oil strategically. In all, natural gas will accelerate the development of China＇s oil and gas industry.

关 键 词：天然气 产量预测 组合预测 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]