工业增长、信贷供求和货币政策调整  

Industry Growth, Credit Supply-demand and Monetary Policy Adjustment

作　　者：刘海英[1] 何彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2009年第7期5-15,共11页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：教育部"国际金融危机应对研究"应急课题"金融危机中的经济形态关联性与市场反应机制研究"(批准号2009JYJR014);教育部重点研究基地重大项目"我国金融资产;商品及劳动力价格的动态传导机制与宏观调控研究"(批准号 08JJD790153)

摘　　要：货币政策不能及时对经济发展出现的变化做出调整,不仅降低了货币政策实施的有效性,还产生了诸如流动性过剩等一系列问题。信贷市场的供求特征直接反映了实体经济的增长,因此,根据信贷市场的非均衡状态对货币政策进行相应调整的关键问题是如何有效地提取各阶段的信贷市场的供求特征信息。本文利用非均衡计量模型这一理论工具得出,我国信贷市场中确实存在着贷款过度需求的非均衡状态,主要表现为近年来贷款增长率始终处于下降并且严重滞后于工业产出需求的状态,同时紧缩性货币政策所导致的信贷供给约束更加强化了这一非均衡状态,并且已经影响到了工业实体经济的发展。货币政策调整除了考虑通胀和流动性过剩问题以外,还必须考虑信贷市场的非均衡状态,否则政策调整的目标将脱离实体经济的增长。The fact that monetary policy fail to adapt according to the changes of economic development not only decreases the effectiveness of monetary policy but also generates series of questions as excess liquidity. The supply-demand characteristic of credit market reflects the growth of real economy, so the key problem of adjust monetary policy according to disequilibrium of credit market is how to find out supply-demand characteristics of credit market at different phases. This paper uses the tool of disequilibrium metering model and points out that there really exists disequilibrium state of excess demand of loan in the credit market. It mainly displayed as that the growth rate of loan is decreasing in recent years and severely lags behind the demand of industry production. What＇s more, the credit supply constraints resulted by tightening of monetary policy intensified the disequilibrium, which has influenced the development of industry real economy. The adjustment of monetary policy should not only consider inflation and excess liquidity, but also consider the disequilibrium state of credit market, or else the objective of policy adjustment will depart from the growth of real economy.

关 键 词：贷款供给 贷款需求 非均衡模型 货币政策调整 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]