影响山东热带气旋的频数与太平洋海温的关系  

Relationship Between Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Influencing Shandong Province and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific

作　　者：高晓梅 江静[2] 袁俊鹏[2] 杨静[2] 钱其峰[2] 马守强 

机构地区：[1]潍坊市气象局,山东潍坊261011 [2]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093

出　　处：《山东气象》2009年第2期8-14,共7页Journal of Shandong Meteorology

摘　　要：利用1949—2007年热带气旋年鉴资料,对影响山东热带气旋(TC)的频数与太平洋海温的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC频数较常年明显偏少。厄尔尼诺次年TC频数较常年稍有增加。拉尼娜年影响山东的TC频数较常年显著偏多,增加明显的月份主要是8月和9月,拉尼娜次年,影响山东TC频数偏少。厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,影响山东的TC频数越少。(2)影响山东的TC数和菲律宾以东洋面的海温呈正相关,并具有很好的持续性。(3)影响山东的TC多年,赤道中东太平洋有较强的负距平区;影响山东的TC少年,赤道中东太平洋为正距平区。说明赤道中东太平洋的海温高低对影响山东的TC频数有较好的指示作用。Based on tropical cyclone yearbook data from 1949 to 2007, relationship between frequency of tropical cyclone （TC） influencing Shandong Province and sea surface temperature in the Pacific is analyzed. The results are as follows： （1） there are less frequencies of TC influencing Shandong Province in E1 Nino years and more frequencies in the following year of E1 Nino years.By contrary, there are more frequencies in La Nina years and less frequencies in the following year of La Nina years, August and September is the main month for the increase of TC frequency in La Nina years; the greater the intensity of E1 Nino event, the less the frequencies of TC influencing Shandong Province. （2） There exists positive correlation between the TC numbers influencing Shandong Province and the SST anomalies in the East ocean of Philippines with high persistence. （3） In the years of more TC influencing Shandong Province, the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific shows positive anomaly, in the years of less TC things are inverse. Above all, it indicates that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has instructive effect on the frequency of TC influencing Shandong Province.

关 键 词：热带气旋 频数 太平洋海温 相关分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]