安徽省及合肥市“房地产泡沫”的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on Real Estate Bubbles in Anhui Province and Hefei City

作　　者：史明瑛[1] 宁建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥学院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《预测》2009年第4期71-75,共5页Forecasting

基　　金：2008年安徽省教育厅重点资助项目(KJ2008A113)

摘　　要：本文选用房价收入比、房价与CPI的同步率、房价与租金的同步率、房屋销售额增长与社会商品零售总额增长的同步率、房地产投资强度、土地价格增长率六项指标,对全国、安徽省、合肥市＂房地产泡沫＂状况进行比较分析,得出安徽省、合肥市2000~2007年房地产泡沫小于全国平均水平的结论。采用边际收益法对全国、安徽省及合肥市房地产泡沫程度分年度予以测度,对2000~2007年房地产泡沫产生的轨迹与区间进行了描述,结果进一步验证了这一结论。A comparison analysis was made to evaluate real estate bubbles between bulk China, Anhui province and Hefei city in 2000 -2007. Six indicators were selected in doing so, including the housing price-income ratio,the synchronization rate of house price and CPI, the synchronization rate of house price and rent, the synchronization rate of house sales volume growth and the total volume of retail sales of social commodity growth, the strength of real estate investment, and the growth rate of land price. The results suggest that average levels of the real estate bubbles for Anhui and Hefei are lower than those for bulk China in this period. This suggestion is testified by both paths and blocks describing the real estate bubbles in 2000 - 2007 based on the marginal revenue analysis method to evaluate the degrees of the real estate bubble in China, Anhui and Hefei in different years.

关 键 词：房地产 泡沫 实证 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]