用周期图法对猩红热的周期性规律的初步探讨  

Preliminary Study of Periodic Regularity of Scarlet Fever by Periodogram Method.

作　　者：陶小润[1] 杨裕华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省卫生防疫站

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》1998年第3期146-148,共3页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：本文根据山东省１９５８～１９９６年３９年猩红热的疫情资料，用周期图法对其发病的周期性规律进行初步探讨，分别计算出第一、二、三次隐含周期。统计分析结果表明，山东省３９年猩红热的年发病率平均为７．３３７７／１０００００万，流行周期为６～８年，周期振动有高度显著性（统计量Ｊ＝５．９０９０，Ｐ＜０．０１）。本次统计结果与国内外有关报道是一致的，也与我省实际流行情况相符合。用周期图法探讨猩红热的流行规律。This paper studied the periodic regularition of scarlet fever preliminarily by periodogram method, according to the incidence in shandong prevention between 1958-1996.The frist, the second and the thrid hidden period was calculated. The results showed that the avarage annual incidence of scarlet fever in Shandong province was 73 377/100 000, the epidemiologic period was between 6-8 years, the periodic vibration was statistically significant (J=5,9090,P<001). These analytic results were in correspondence with epidemiologic condition of the disease in Shandong province. It furnished scientific basis to us for preventing the disease.

关 键 词：猩红热 周期图 周期性规律 

分 类 号：R515.1[医药卫生—内科学]