乌鲁木齐夏半年降水演变及可能最大降水估算  

Change of Precipitation and Estimate of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Urumqi in Summer Half Year

作　　者：王江 贾丽红 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2009年第3期17-21,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：对乌鲁木齐4—9月夏半年大雨以上降水各年代际降水量和降水日数统计分析表明:除20世纪60年代外,乌鲁木齐4—9月各年代大雨以上降水占总降水量的40%以上。大雨以上降水量和降水日数都呈增加趋势,2000年以后大雨以上降水量和暴雨次数都达到最大值。在此基础上,采用水文气象学的原理和方法对当地暴雨进行水汽效率放大和水汽输送率放大,推求乌鲁木齐1、2、3d的可能最大降水量,对比两种放大方法,采用水汽效率放大,1d可能最大降水为102mm。并用极值分布法推求乌鲁木齐最大日降水量重现期。为防汛抗灾提供了可靠的气象决策依据,最大可能降低了暴雨洪涝灾害造成的损失。This paper analyzed statistically the precipitation and the rain days occurring heavy rainfall or more in Urumqi during the period from Apr. to Sept. in different decades. The results showed that the precipitation of heavy rainfall or more in different decades accounts for more than 40% of general amount of precipitation but 1960s. Both the precipitation and the rain days trended to increase, and both the precipitation of heavy rainfall or more and the times of rainstorm reached the maximum since 2000. The PMP of 1d, 2d and 3d in Urumqi were inquired by using of the principle and method of hydrometeorology for vapour-efficiency magnification and vapour-transfer rate magnification. By contrasting the magnification, the PMP of one day w maximum precipitation in Urumqi was two magnification methods and adopting vapour-efficiency as got and to be 102 ram. And the return period of the calculated using the method of extreme value distribution. This study can provide credible meteorological decision-making gist for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and take on utmost to reduce the damage caused by flood and torrential rain.

关 键 词：夏半年 可能最大降水 PMP 极值分布法 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]