中国天然橡胶安全的预警系统及实证测度  

Alarm System and Empirical Evaluation of Natural Rubber's Security in China

作　　者：曹旭平[1,2] 沈杰[2] 杨晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京交通职业技术学院管理系,江苏南京211188 [2]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2009年第9期798-800,807,共4页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：江苏省青蓝工程资助项目(编号:苏教师2008-30);江苏省哲学社科基金项目(编号:08SJD7900019);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学基金项目(编号:09SJD790030)

摘　　要：采用PFC、PPR、PRR、SSR和RR指标,构建中国天然橡胶安全预警系统对中国天然橡胶安全进行综合评价及预警,不同指标权重因重要性不同而各异。实证测定了1998—2007年中国天然橡胶安全程度,得出中国天然橡胶安全系数呈下降趋势,警情主要为中等风险但易向高度风险转化的结论。针对这些问题,提出中国天然橡胶高级生产要素培育、海外投资、期货市场完善、有效预警和战略储备等战略措施。Alarm system of natural rubber＇ s security in China was constituted. Natural rubber＇ s security in China was synthetically evaluated and alarmed by PFC, PPR, PRR, SSR and RR. Each index had own proportion according to its importance. Natural rubber＇ s security in China from 1998 to 2007 was reckoned empirically. Conclusion was made that SC of China＇s natural robber was declining, alarm states were chiefly middling risks and easy to become high risks. The strategies of fostering advanced producing essentials, investing overseas, reforming futures market, alarming effectively and reserving strategically were given in regard to above problems.

关 键 词：天然橡胶 预警系统 安全系数 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]