基于R/S分析的GMDH自组织方法在用电量预测中的应用  

The Application of GMDH Based on R/S Analysis in Forecasting Power Consumptiong

作　　者：曹玉洁[1] 何跃[1] 贺昌政[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,成都610064

出　　处：《软科学》2009年第7期17-20,31,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70771067)

摘　　要：将R/S分析方法引入用电量预测;并将R/S定性分析方法与GMDH定量预测方法结合,应用于成都市用电量预测。应用R/S分析方法从定性角度研究成都市历年用电量变化趋势的特性,得出成都市城市用电量Hurst指数;运用GMDH预测方法从定量角度对成都市近几年的城市用电量进行预测,进而验证Hurst指数所反映出的成都市用电量的增长趋势。This paper introduced R/S method to the power consumption forecasting. It used both qualitative method which is R/S analysis and quantitative method which is GMDH to forecast the power consumption in Chengdu. This paper applied R/S analysis to research the growth character of the power consumption in historical year in Chengdu, and computed the Hurst index firstly. And then this paper used GMDH method to forecast the power consumption of Chengdu in recent years, and tested the growth of Chengdu＇ s power consumption furtherly.

关 键 词：R/S分析 HURST指数 GMDH预测方法 用电量 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]