二孩晚育软着陆方案有利于解决我国出生性别比偏高问题  

The Two-Child & Late Childbearing Policy:an Effective Way to Resolve the Serious Problem of High Sex Ratio at Birth in China

作　　者：曾毅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心 [2]杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心

出　　处：《社会科学》2009年第8期54-59,共6页Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"老年人口家庭;健康与照料需求成本研究"(项目编号:70533010)子课题"人口政策建议分析研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：现行农村只允许独女户生二孩的一孩半政策有两方面的负面影响:(1)"一男孩价值二女孩"的心理暗示作用助长了重男轻女、产前性别鉴定与流产女婴;(2)一孩半政策本身造成了二胎女孩出生数结构性减少。通过家庭人口预测两性平衡模型分析可以看出,即使在完全相同的出生性别比假定条件下,如果保持现行生育政策不变,中年男子因婚龄女性短缺而找不到妻子的问题也要比"二孩晚育软着陆方案"严重得多。尽快启动二孩晚育软着陆是解决我国出生性别比偏高严重问题的有效途径之一。Analysis presented in this article demonstrates that soft-landing to the two-child with late-childbearing policy would overcome the two drawbacks of the current Chinese fertility policy which allows only those couples whose first child is a girl to have a second birth (i.e. the one-and-half-child policy) in most of the rural areas:(1) The one-and-half-child policy encourages son-preference by implicitly telling peasants that a son's value is twice of that of a daughter; (2) it structurally results in more boys than girls among the second births even if assuming the percent of prenatal sex determination and aborting the second female fetus is exactly the same under the one-and-half-child policy and two-child policy. Furthermore,the two-sex family household projection presented in this article numerically shows that even assuming the same sex ratio at birth in the future under the current-policy-unchanged and the two-child policy scenarios,the marriage squeeze problems in the scenario of keeping the current fertility policy unchanged will be much more serious than that in the two-child policy scenario. The essay concludes that soft-landing to the two-child with late-childbearing policy is one of the effective ways for resolving the serious problems of high sex ratio at birth in China.

关 键 词：二孩晚育 生育政策 生育间隔 出生性别比 婚姻挤压 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]