概率模型含模糊分布参数的结构体系模糊可靠度分析方法  

PROCEDURE FOR ANALYZING THE FUZZY RELIABILITY OF STRUCTURAL SYSTEM WHEN PARAMETERS OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE FUZZY

作　　者：尼早[1] 邱志平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学固体力学研究所,北京100083

出　　处：《工程力学》2009年第7期28-34,共7页Engineering Mechanics

基　　金：高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B07009)

摘　　要：结构体系的模糊可靠度评估是工程中倍受关注的重要问题,而主要失效模式的识别及对应极限状态方程的建立是结构体系模糊可靠度分析的关键。该文将模糊数学理论与可靠性分析相结合,对概率模型含模糊分布参数时的结构体系模糊可靠度进行分析,在失效模式不相关和相关两种情况下分别建立了相应的结构体系模糊失效概率计算模型。所提出的含模糊分布参数的结构体系失效模式的枚举准则,可在只需枚举出少量主失效模式的条件下,不漏掉最危险失效模式。算例分析表明该方法是有效和可行的。Fuzzy reliability of a structural system is widely concerned in engineering practices, where the identification of the worst failure mode and the establishment of the corresponding performance equations are two critical issues. In this paper, fuzzy mathematical theory and reliability analysis are combined, thus to evaluate the fuzzy reliability of a structural system whose probabilistic models involve fuzzy variables. Then, the computation models to calculate the fuzzy failure probability of the structural system are established for both correlated failure modes and uncorrelated failure modes. The presented criterion to enumerate the failure modes guarantees the consideration of the worst failure mode. At last, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method.

关 键 词：模糊分布参数 结构体系 失效模式 模糊变量 模糊失效概率 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]