基于PVS的海湾开发利用程度评价——以大亚湾为例  

Exploitative Degree Evaluation of Bay Based on PVS Framework——A Case Study of Daya Bay

作　　者：张丹丹[1,2] 杨晓梅[1] 苏奋振[1] 孙晓宇[1] 薛振山[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第8期1440-1449,共10页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：973项目(2006CB701305);863项目(2009AA12Z148)

摘　　要：海湾作为海岸带的重要区域,具有优越的自然资源条件、良好的地理位置和环境条件,正因如此,海湾承受了人类高强度的开发利用活动。海湾开发利用程度的研究对海湾资源的保护及后续的开发利用具有重要意义。论文基于海湾空间结构和海陆相互作用复杂性的特点,提出了顾及海湾脆弱性的PVS(压力-脆弱性-状态)概念框架来构建海湾开发强度的指标体系,对整个海湾的开发利用程度进行综合评价。其过程如下:首先,对压力、脆弱性、状态3个系统层次的近岸陆域、潮间带滩涂和近岸海域的指标要素进行粗选;再利用遥感影像、实测、统计和文献资料等多源数据,通过经验模型或数学模型对各个指标进行量化/半定量化处理;然后利用特尔斐法对指标进行进一步的筛选,确定最终的指标体系;再利用灰色关联分析,确定各个指标的权重大小顺序,并结合专家打分法确定各指标的权重。最后,利用海湾开发利用程度评价的指数模型对大亚湾20世纪80年代和2004年的开发利用程度进行评价。结果表明:近20年来,大亚湾的开发利用程度已由过去的中等开发,演变为目前的强开发。文章最后对变化的原因进行了分析,并给出了政策建议。The bay area,as one of the most important parts of coastal zone,has superior natural resource condition,good geographical position and environmental condition,therefore,it＇s enduring strong human activities.The research of the exploitative degree of bay is meaningful for the protection and further exploitation of bays.This paper aimed at the exploitation of bays,a PVS framework was proposed for the evaluation of exploitative degree of bays.Unlike the normally used PSR,DSR and DPSIR framework,PVS framework takes the vulnerability of bays into account,which can better reflect the complex and the vulnerable characteristics of bays.The evaluation procedure is as follows： Firstly,to choose indicators of each component（offshore land area,tidal flat,and offshore sea area） of bays level by level,namely,in a sequence of pressure,vulnerability and state.Secondly,by use of the remote sensing data,field survey data,statistic data,vector data and other data source,quantify or half-quantify processing was made with mathematical or experiential model.Thirdly,Delphi method was used for the further filtering of indicators,and the whole framework of indicators was formed.Fourthly,gray correlation analysis method was used to identify the weight sequence of indicator,and the Delphi method was combined to identify the final weight of each indicator.In the last of the paper,the exploitative degree of Daya Bay during 1980s and 2004 was evaluated by the framework proposed.Evaluation results show that： The exploitative degree of Daya Bay has changed from middle level to high level during the latest 20 years.Reasons for the change were analyzed and some policy suggestions were given in the end of the paper.

关 键 词：海湾 开发利用程度 压力-脆弱性-状态 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学]