Analysis of Driving Factors of Grain Output in Henan Province Based on Grey Correlation Model  

基于灰色关联模型的河南省粮食生产驱动力分析(英文)

作　　者：贺振[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划系,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《Agricultural Science & Technology》2009年第3期123-126,147,共5页农业科学与技术（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the Decision Research Bidding Office of Henan Provincial Government (Grant No. B104);Henan Provincial Department of Science and Technology Research Project (Grant No.0613011200);Henan Provincial Social Science Planning Project(2007BJJ)~~

摘　　要：Henan Province is an important grain production base, whose stable production is related to the economic development and social stability significantly. To summarize the primary factors of grain producing, we used grey correlation analysis method to analyze 10 correlative factors such as grain yield, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, rural employed persons, grain planting area, consumption of chemical fertilizer in 25 years. The results showed order of synthetic degree of incidence: effective irrigated area>rural electricity consumption>consumption of chemical fertilizer>disaster crop area>grain yield per unit of area>total power of agricultural machinery>afflicted crop area>grain planting area>number of the rural employed persons. Finally, according to synthetic degree of incidence between influential factors and total grain output respectively, a series of measures and the suggestions was proposed for grain production in Henan Province, which will also provide the scientific basis and help for the government correct decision-making.Henan Province is an important grain production base, whose stable production is related to the economic development and social stability significantly. To summarize the primary factors of grain producing, we used grey correlation analysis method to analyze 10 correlative factors such as grain yield, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, rural employed persons, grain planting area, consumption of chemical fertilizer in 25 years. The results showed order of synthetic degree of incidence： effective irrigated area〉rural electricity consumption〉consumption of chemical fertilizer〉disaster crop area〉grain yield per unit of area〉total power of agricultural machinery〉afflicted crop area〉grain planting area〉number of the rural employed persons. Finally, according to synthetic degree of incidence between influential factors and total grain output respectively, a series of measures and the suggestions was proposed for grain production in Henan Province, which will also provide the scientific basis and help for the government correct decision-making.

关 键 词：Grain yield Grey correlation analysis Driving force Henan Province 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]