地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论  

Preliminary discussion on technical guideline for geohazard risk assessment

作　　者：吴树仁[1] 石菊松[1] 张春山[1] 王涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室/中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地质通报》2009年第8期995-1005,共11页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑课题(编号:2006BAC04B05);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(编号:2008CB425803);中国地质调查局项目(编号:1212010640401)资助

摘　　要：为了分析阐明突发地质灾害风险评估领域的一些热点问题,在概要地分析地质灾害风险评估技术指南编写的目的、基本原则和结构层次、核心内容的基础上,重点探索了地质灾害易发程度、危险性和风险评估的工作流程。初步提出地质灾害风险评估应该遵循的6条基本原则、结构层次及核心内容;初步提出定性分析-定量化评价相结合的地质灾害风险评估技术方法,提倡实用性技术方法和GIS技术的推广应用;初步提出地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评估区划的基本工作流程。最后,简要地讨论了地质灾害风险评估的一些主要难点和易于混淆的问题,为地质灾害风险评估技术指南的编制和修改完善提供参考依据。In order to analyze and clarify some key issues in the field of sudden geo-hazard risk assessment, on the basis of general analysis of purposes, basic principles, structure and core contents of the technicalguideline for geo-hazard risk assessment, this paper has focused on the working process of risk, probability and possible consequence assessment. Six basic principles, structure and core contents which should be followed are put forward; qualitative analysis with combination of quantitative evaluation method and tech- niques are achieved with emphasis on practical techniques and GIS application; basic working process of risk, probability and possible consequence geo-hazard assessment are put forward. Lastly, there are some brief discussions on some of the major difficulties which are easy to be confused in terms of geo-hazard risk assessment, which can be referred to for the technical guideline revision and improvement.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性 危险性 风险 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]