陕西省宝鸡市渭滨区夏呀河滑坡风险评估  

Risk evaluation for Xiayahe landslide in Weibin District,Baoji City,Shaanxi Province,China

作　　者：何淑军[1,2] 张春山[1,3] 陈志华 吴树仁[1,3] 辛鹏[1,3] 叶思源[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中化岩土工程股份有限公司,北京102600 [3]中国地质科学院地壳变形地表过程实验室,北京100081 [4]新疆时代石油工程有限公司,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《地质通报》2009年第8期1064-1076,共13页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑课题(编号:2006BAC04B05;2008BAK47B04);中国地质调查局项目(编号:1212010640401)资助

摘　　要：为了探索多级潜在滑动面滑坡的定量化风险评估技术方法,以陕西省宝鸡市渭滨区夏呀河4级潜在滑动面滑坡为例,利用国际上通用的单体滑坡风险计算公式,在夏呀河滑坡野外大比例尺(1∶10000)调查、工程勘探和室内测试分析的基础上,简述了夏呀河滑坡的基本特征和危险性,重点研究了不同潜在滑动面的危害性、影响范围、承灾体的时空概率、易损性和风险估算,详细论述了各个参数的影响因素,探讨了单体滑坡风险评估的一般模式和滑坡频率、时间概率、空间概率、承灾体易损性参数的确定方法,并初步估算了夏呀河各级滑坡在不同工况条件下潜在的经济损失和人员伤亡的总风险值,量化地表达了该滑坡所具有的潜在威胁。研究表明,夏呀河滑坡属于高风险滑坡,和国际上暂定的社会容许标准相比,其总风险值处于不可接受范围内,应该采取风险减缓措施进行风险管理。In order to research into quantitative risk assessment technique for multi-surface potential landslide, taking Xiayahe landslide which has four potential sliding surfaces in Weibin District, Baoji City, Shaanxi Province as an example, based on large scale（1：10000） field survey, geotechnical exploration, indoor analytic research and by using international single landslide risk calculation formula, fundamental characteristic and fatalness of Xiayahe landslide were briefly described and potential harmfulness, influence scope of every different potential sliding surface , time-spatial probability, vulnerability and risk were deeply researched. It＇s also primarily evaluated that under different civil condition the overall risk of potential economic loss and death which leads to a quantitative expression. It＇s indicated that Xiayahe landslide belongs to highly risky disaster-bearing body, compared to international risk tolerance standard., the risk value can＇t be accepted, and certain risk mitigation measures must be carried on.

关 键 词：滑坡 风险评估 时空概率 承灾体 易损性 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]