城市经济环境协调发展系统动力学模拟  

SYSTEM DYNAMICS SIMULATION FOR THE COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT

作　　者：贺晟晨[1] 王远[1] 高倩[1] 石磊[1] 陆根法[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2009年第8期698-703,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:40701063);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC02A18)

摘　　要：城市社会经济发展具有系统性、动态性、复杂性的特点,运用系统动力学方法建模可以充分揭示城市系统的非线性结构和动态特征,从而对环境约束下的城市经济发展趋势进行判断预测。在分析了苏州市经济发展和环境保护基本框架的基础上,建立了包括经济子系统和环境子系统的苏州市经济环境协调发展系统动力学模型,并围绕三产固定资产比重、三产劳动力比重、万元工业产值污染物排放量和环保投资比重等调控参数设计了3种发展模式,得出经济、环境协调发展模式为最优方案。通过对不同发展模式的分析与比较,提出苏州市应采取以下措施:一是优化产业结构,大力发展第三产业;二是加大环境保护的力度,增大环保投资,同时控制单位产值污染物的排放。必须把两者放在同等重要的地位,才能实现苏州市环境与经济协调发展。The urban social economic development possesses characteristics of system, dynamics and complication. Applying system dynamics method to establish models can depict systemic nonlinear structure and dynamic characteristics adequately and predict the trend of economic development with the restriction of environment. Based on the analysis of the structure including economic development and environmental protection in Suzhou,the system dynamics model composed of the economic subsystem and environmental subsystem was established. Three developing modes Were designed with the adjustment parameters of ratios of fixed assets and labors in the three industrial sectors, pollutants emitted per 10 thousand Yuan of industrial output value and the proportion of environmental investigation, and the optimum one was the coordinated developing mode of economy and environment. From the comparison among the three modes,two suggestions are submitted for the government of Suzhou： firstly,the structure of industry should be optimized and the tertiary industry must be taken more efforts on it; secondly, the ratio of the investigation on environmental protection should be increased while the control of pollutant emission per unit of industrial output value is necessary. These two aspects should be paid the same importance to achieve the harmony development of economy and environment in Suzhou.

关 键 词：城市 协调发展 系统动力学 模拟 苏州 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]