近百年来大连城市空间演变还原与模拟  

The Revivification of the Urban Spatial Expansion Process since 1901 and Its Simulation for the Future Evolution in Dalian

作　　者：姚秀利[1] 王红扬[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省城市规划设计研究院,南京210024 [2]南京大学城市与区域规划系,南京210093

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2009年第4期24-28,66,共6页Areal Research and Development

摘　　要：在已有研究成果基础上,构建了城市空间扩展过程还原与模拟技术体系。结合所构建的技术体系对近百年来大连城市空间扩展过程进行还原,并对未来城市空间扩展过程进行模拟。研究表明:近百年来大连城市空间扩展存在5个阶段性特征;大连城市空间扩展的主体方向、强度分布、主导形式在不同时期表现出不同的特征。在此基础上,通过引入表征种群竞争关系的Lotka-Volterra模型,预测了大连城市在无竞争、有竞争的条件下,城市空间扩展达到极限所需要的时间。Based on the achivements relative to urban spatial expansion, a technological system of revivification and simulation of urban spatial expansion process is built in this paper. Meanwhile, taking Dalian as a case, this paper analyzed the data of urban spatial expansion in Dalian for the period of 1901--2005 by the method of spatial analysis in GIS. Then, the process of urban spatial expansion in Dalian for the same period is revivified and the future process of urban spatial expansion is predicted and simulated in the paper under the guidance of the system. Three important conclusions are obtained ： first, the process of Dalian＇ s urban spatial expansion can be divided into five phases; second, the main expanding direction, distribution of expanding extensity, dominant expanding modality are various in different phases. At last, the paper inducts Lotka-Voherra model which is used to reflect the competitive relationship in different species to predict that Dalian＇ s spatial expansion will achieve its terminal point in 2054, 2039, 2035 in the presupposition of non-competition or competition. The competitive coefficient is chosen 0, 0.1 , 0. 2 respectively.

关 键 词：城市 空间扩展 还原 模拟 104年 大连市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]