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出 处:《国际经贸探索》2009年第8期37-41,共5页International Economics and Trade Research
摘 要:美国次贷危机引发金融危机,金融危机导致世界经济整体下滑。短期内,外部需求萎缩、国际原材料价格上涨和人民币升值导致的企业出口成本上升、国外银行信贷紧缩导致的国内企业资金周转能力下降以及贸易保护主义抬头等因素使得中国出口贸易增速明显下降。从中长期来看,外需明显萎缩是影响中国出口贸易增长的主要因素,预计2009年中国出口贸易增速将降为3.2%左右。The sub-prime mortgage crisis induces the current financial crisis, which leads to a worldwide economic decline. The reasons for the visible decrease of China's export trade speed are shrinking foreign demand, the rising export cost of our enterprises caused by rising prices of international raw materials and RMB appreciation, the decline of our domestic enterprises, capital turnover resulted from foreign banks' credit contraction as well as the appearance of trade protectionism policies. The paper concludes that foreign demand shrink is the most important factor, and that China's export trade speed is estimated to decline up to 3.2% in 2009.
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