集合预报试验在福建省雨季的降水检验  

Verification on Precipitation Forecasts of an Experimental Ensemble Prediction System

作　　者：潘宁[1] 刘铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福州350001

出　　处：《福建气象》2009年第2期1-7,共7页

基　　金：福建省气象局课题（200501）资助

摘　　要：利用福建省地面测站2004—2007年雨季的降水资料，评价福建省“物理参数化方案扰动”集合预报试验的预报效果。结果显示：集合成员的确定性降水预报的准确程度相当；降水集合平均中等强度降水的预报质量高于集合成员，但和集合成员一样不能很好地预报暴雨天气；分级和累加量级降水概率预报都有较高的预报技巧，对雨季强降水预报具有参考价值。Based on the Fujiao Meso-scale Model System （FJMMS） ,an experimental 5-member Ensemble Prediction System （EPS）is being developed. In this paper,the precipitation forecasts of the experimental EPS during the 2004-2007 rainy seasons in Fujian were verified by comparing to the rainfall observations. It shows that the performance of each ensemble member was equivalent to predicting precipitation. Though the EPS mean, along with all members,could not predict heavy rains well, it was better than each member when predicting moderate rains. It also indicates that in terms of the ranked probability score and the relative operation characteristics,the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts （PQPFs） were skillful enough to be applied in predicting heavy rain events in rainy season.

关 键 词：集合预报 数值预报 降水 检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457