中国工业重新配置与劳动力流动趋势  

Industrial and Labor Relocations among Chinese Regions

作　　者：蔡昉[1] 王美艳[1] 曲玥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2009年第8期5-16,共12页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：在中国经济遭遇金融危机冲击前后,工业经济增长格局发生了一定的变化,即相对沿海地区,中西部工业产出增长明显加快。与此同时,沿海地区出现劳动成本提高的趋势,又由于金融危机时期外需的大幅度下降,呈现出工业经济重新配置的新格局。然而,本文的分析表明,迄今为止中西部工业加速发展主要来自于政策效应,即政府对中西部的倾斜政策和直接投资,因而形成的是偏于重化工业的产业结构,并不符合中西部的资源禀赋。保持中国经济高速、可持续增长,有赖于形成国内的雁阵模式,要求把中西部的增长转到市场引导的比较优势轨道上来。Before and in the time when the global financial crisis hit the real economy of China, there has appeared a change in regional growth pattern of industries that is, industrial outputs in central and western regions have grown relatively faster than that in the eastern regions. In the same time, suffering from labor costs rise and sharp drop in orders of exports, the industries in coastal areas seem to lose their role as major driver of the Chinese economic growth. However, based on empirical studies, this paper shows that the current changes in regional pattern of industrial growth, or the trends of industrial relocation, are mainly the results of central government＇s implementation of favorable policies and biased investment. That formed the industrial structure, which are dominated by heavy industries and inconsistent with the regions＇ resources endowments. This paper suggests that sustaining the rapid economic growth in China requires building a domestic flying geese model so that the central and western regions can carry on the comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries. The urgent challenge facing implementation of regional development strategies is to transfgrm~ the government intervention and investment-oriented mode to comparative advantage-following and market-oriented mode, so as to make the industrial relocation of industries become upgrading process of all eastern, central and western regions altogether.

关 键 词：工业重新配置 大国经济 比较优势 雁阵模式 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]