公共政策的行为微观模拟模型及其应用  

A Behavioral Microsimulation Model and Public Policy Analysis

作　　者：张世伟[1] 万相昱[2] 曲洋[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]东北师范大学商学院 [3]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第8期57-70,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:05BYJ026);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(编号:05JJD790079)资助

摘　　要：本文研制了一个行为微观模拟模型,用于分析公共政策变动的劳动供给效应和收入分配效应。模型利用劳动供给模型对个体预算约束条件下的劳动供给行为进行模拟,利用算术微观模拟模型模拟个体对公共政策变动的劳动供给行为反应导致其收入变动的状况。应用模型对城镇最低工资保障制度进行了模拟,指出适当地提升最低工资标准,能够有效地促进低收入群体劳动供给的增加和收入的增长,有助于我国城镇居民收入差距的缩小和贫困的削减。In this paper, we develop a behavioral microsimulation model to analyze the labor supply and income distribution effects of public policy change. In this model, labor supply behavior under individual budget constraint is simulated through a labor supply model and income variation caused by individual labor supply response to public policy change is simulated through an arithmetic microsimulation model. The model is applied in the simulation experiment of urban minimum wage guarantee system. The result indicates that the proper increase of minimum wage standard can effectively promote the labor supply and increase the income of low-income group and it can also help in the decrease of urban residents＇ income disparity and poverty.

关 键 词：微观模拟 公共政策 劳动供给 收入分配 

分 类 号：F244.2[经济管理—劳动经济]