基于灰色-随机风险率方法的湖泊水质分析  

ANALYSIS OF LAKE WATER QUALITY BASED ON GREY-STOCHASTIC RISK METHOD

作　　者：李兴[1] 李畅游[1] 代文婕 勾芒芒[3] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古满洲里市建设局,内蒙古满洲里021400 [3]内蒙古农业大学生态与环境学院,呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《环境工程》2009年第4期117-119,61,共4页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50569002 50669004);内蒙古自然科学基金重点项目(200711020604);内蒙古自治区水利厅重点支持项目(20080105);内蒙古自治区"十一五"科技攻关

摘　　要：湖泊水环境是一个受多种不确定性因素限制的复杂系统。以内蒙古乌梁素海为研究对象，应用水质超标灰色-随机风险率的计算方法和系统可靠性分析理论建立了单项参数评价模型和综合参数评价模型，分析湖泊入口断面水质存在的潜在风险性。结果表明：乌梁素海镉的V类达标率仅为7．69％-23．89％，镉污染已经十分严重，硫化物和氰化物的Ⅲ类和V类达标率都达到100％，所以几乎不受这两项指标的污染。该方法能较好地反映乌梁素海入口断面不同水质参数的污染强度和污染历时的变异过程，为湖泊水环境风险的决策和管理工作提供了参考依据。Lake water environment is a complicated system that is restricted by many uncertainty factors. Taking Wuliangsu Lake in Inner Mongolia as the study area, and assessment models for individual parameter and multiple parameters were established by greystochastic risk methods and approach of reliability system. The following results were obtained： safe probability of the fifth level on cadmium merely was from 7.69 percent to 23.89 percent in Wuliangsu Lake and contamination of cadmium was very serious; safe probability of the third level and the fifth level on sulphide and cyanide were all 100 percent, so the water in the lake was almost not contaminated by the two parameters. It was very good to reflect contamination intensity and duration of different water quality parameter in ＂the entry of Wuliangsu Lake by grey-stochastic risk method. It would provide a reference for decislon-making and risk management on the lake water environment.

关 键 词：湖泊水质 灰色概率 灰色-随机风险率 风险分析 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]