气候变化情景下外来森林病虫害潜在生境动态分析--以美国南方松大小蠹为例  

Dynamic analysis of potential habitat of alien forest invasive species under climate change scenarios:A case study of Dendroctonus frontalis

作　　者：李明阳[1,2] 巨云为[1] 吴文浩[1] 何燕洁[1] 徐光彩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学森林资源与环境学院 [2]美国科罗拉多州立大学自然资源与生态实验室

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2009年第4期64-69,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：“948”国家林业局引进项目(2008-4-56);北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(GJSYS100220402)

摘　　要：防止外来生物入侵造成危害的重要手段是阻止可能造成入侵的物种进入适合其生存的地区。随着全球气候变化,外来入侵物种的空间分布格局也将随之发生变化。该文以美国外来入侵物种南方松大小蠹(SPB)为研究对象,以SPB重要发生地亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州为研究区域,以美国Daymet基础地理信息数据库为主要信息源,采用最大熵法(Maxent)生态位模型,建立潜在生境预测模型。在此基础上,分别以2000、2050、2100年3种气候变化情景,预测SPB潜在生境的空间变化趋势。研究表明:温度的季节性变动系数(46.7%)、最湿季节降水量(32.4%)是影响SPB的两个最重要的环境因子;随着气温的升高,研究区域SPB适生概率从0.067 7下降到0.064 0;当适生概率P>0.5时,外来SPB感染面积从1.2%下降到0.5%,感染区域SPB适生概率反而从0.548 9上升到0.610 7;随着最湿季节降水的重心由西向东偏移,SPB分布的中心从亚利桑那州中部偏移到新墨西哥州东南部。The effective measure to minimize the damage of invasive species is to block the potential invasive species from entering into suitable areas. With global climate change, the spatial pattern of invasive species will also change. Two American states, Arizona and New Mexico, which were affected by southern pine beetle （SPB） （ Dendroctonus frontalis ）, were chosen as the case study area. Environmental variables were extracted from the Daymet datasets, and the ecological niche modeling method of maximum entropy method （Maxent） was introduced to predict potential habitat for the invasive species, together with the generation of distribution maps under three climate change scenarios in 2000,2050 and 2100 using the same model. Results showed that temperature seasonality and precipitation amount in the wettest quarter were the two most important environmental variables affecting the potential habitat of the invasive pest, contributing 46.7 % and 32.g %, respectively. With the increase of temperature, suitability probability of SPB would decrease from 0.067 7 to 0. 064 0 and the infected area would shrink from 1.2 % to 0.5 % （ P 〉 0.5）, contrasting with the increase of suitability probability in infected area from 0.548 9 to 0.610 7. With the increase in annual temperature, the potential distribution of SPB would also shift from central Arizona to the southeast part of New Mexico, coinciding with the change of precipitation center from west to east in the wettest quarter.

关 键 词：外来入侵物种 潜在生境 气候变化 南方松大小蠹 

分 类 号：Q143[生物学—生态学] S763[生物学—普通生物学]