层次分析法在福建省农业气象灾害综合评价中的应用  

APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS IN COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

作　　者：张星[1] 陈惠[2] 吴菊薪 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象局,福建福州350001 [2]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001 [3]东阳市气象局,浙江东阳322100

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2009年第4期508-512,共5页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：福建省科技厅重点项目(2006Y008)资助

摘　　要：采用层次分析法对影响福建省农业生产的主要气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冻害)进行量化分析,得到其对农业生产的影响权重:水灾>旱灾>冻害>风雹灾。利用福建省1980—2004年农业受灾和成灾面积资料,建立农业气象灾情的综合评价模型对福建省近25年的农业气象灾害进行定量的综合评价。结果表明,福建省农业气象灾害的中灾及以下灾情的出现频率占总数的88%,1997年灾情最重,1984年最轻。进一步分析发现,农业气象灾害对农业生产的危害随年代增大。Using the analytical hierarchy process（AHP）, the paper quantitatively analyzes main meteorological disasters like drought, flood, hails, low temperatures and frosts, which influence the agricultural production in Fujian Province, and establishes respective importance for factors influencing it： flood has the largest weight, followed in turn by drought, chilly damage and hails. Based on the statistical data of the area of damage inflicted on the province from 1985 to 2004, a comprehensive assessment model was built to estimate the degree of destruction for the agricultural production in the past 25 years in Fujian. The calculated result shows that agrometeorological disasters with medium or below-medium consequences amounted to 88% of the total, being most serious in 1997 and least serious in 1984. Further study shows that the agrometeorological disasters were getting more serious with the year. AHP is a reasonable and practical method for comprehensively evaluating agrometeorological disasters.

关 键 词：农业气象 层次分析法 灾害 权重 综合评价 福建 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]