人民币汇率波动的福利效应--基于我国制造业面板数据的实证分析  

Effect of Renminbi Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Welfare: an Empirical Study Based on China Manufacturing Panel Data

作　　者：冯晓华[1,2] 张玉英[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院 [2]湖北大学商学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2009年第9期107-116,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目《中国在东亚跨国生产网络中的分工地位、分工效应及外贸战略调整研究》(08BJL049);湖北大学人文社科基金青年项目《贸易自由化对中国工资差距的影响研究--基于二元开放结构的分析》(100-098209)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文运用1996-2007年我国制造业27个细分行业的贸易和产业数据,根据人民币实际有效汇率(总体汇率)的计算方法构造了制造业分行业的进、出口汇率指标,分别考察了总体汇率、出口汇率、进口汇率对制造业分行业、分部门(劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三个部门)工人福利的影响及其传导途径。实证研究结果表明:在分行业分析中,三种汇率升值均降低了制造业工人的福利水平;在分部门分析中,由于区分了各部门贸易程度和产业性质存在的差异,汇率升值主要通过出口途径降低了劳动密集型部门工人的福利,主要通过投入品进口途径和制成品进口途径分别提高了资本密集型部门和技术密集型部门工人的福利。最后,本文就长短期内如何调整人民币汇率以促进制造业工人福利改善提出了一些政策建议。Based on the construction of two indices： export exchange rate and import exchange rate, using the data from 1978 to 2006, this paper firstly studies the effect of total exchange rate, export exchange rate and import exchange rate fluctuations on the real wage in China 27 manufacturing sectors. And then, the paper classifies manufacturing sectors into three types, labor-intensive sector, capital-intensive sector and technology-intensive sector, and separately estimates the effect of three types of exchange rate fluctuations on real wage. The findings are as follows： Firstly, three types of exchange rate appreciation have reduced the welfare of manufacturing workers of 27 manufacturing sectors; Secondly, after distinguishing the difference of the mechanisms which the exchange rate fluctuations affect the real wage between each sector, caused by the various industry nature and trade characteristics, although three types of exchange rate appreciation still reduce the welfare of workers in labor-intensive sector, they help to improve the welfare of workers in capital-intensive sector and technology-intensive sector. At last, some suggestions of adjusting exchange rate fluctuations are put forward to improve the welfare of manufacturing workers.

关 键 词：人民币 汇率波动 福利效应 制造业 面板数据 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学] F822.2