焦作市需水预测与水资源优化配置研究  

Research on Water Demand Forecasting and Optimized Allocation about Water Resources in Jiaozuo City

作　　者：杜芙蓉[1] 杜长胜 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]焦作市水利局,河南焦作454002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2009年第4期25-28,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究基金资助重点项目(104197)

摘　　要：针对焦作市日益紧张的水资源供需矛盾问题,采用指标分析法建立了工业、农业、生活和生态环境的需水预测模型,预测了2030年焦作市的需水量,并建立了多目标优化配置模型,兼顾社会、经济和环境效益,采用大系统分解协调法进行优化配置,在优先满足生活用水的条件下对各区水资源进行分配,预测了2030年保证率50%、75%各区的缺水量。Aiming at to the problem of the great contradiction between water supply and demand in J iaozuo City, the method of index analysis is applied to establish the water demand prediction model including industrial water demand and agricultural water demand, city life and eco-environmental water demand. The quantity of water demand in 2030 in Jiaozuo City is predicted using the model combining with the expected social development degree in the future. Then, a multi-objective optimization and allocation model using large-scale system decomposition-coordination theory taking into account social, economic and environmental benefits is established. In priority to meet the life water demand, water resources are allocated under the ensuring rate of 50% and 75% . Thus, the quantity of water shortage is calculated .

关 键 词：水资源 需水预测 水资源优化配置模型 指标分析法 大系统分解协调模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]