区域水资源短缺风险的SPA—VFS评价模型  

Set Pair Analysis-Variable Fuzzy Set Model for Evaluation of Regional Water Resources Shortage Risk

作　　者：王富强[1] 韩宇平[1] 汪党献[2] 赵若[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院水利学院,河南郑州450011 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2009年第4期31-33,225,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2006BAD20B06);水利部公益性行业专项经费基金资助项目(200801015);华北水利水电学院高层次人才科研启动基金资助项目

摘　　要：基于集对分析原理,选取区域水资源短缺风险程度的风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、重现期和风险度为评价指标,建立了基于集对分析—可变模糊集的区域水资源短缺风险评价模型。湖北漳河灌区实例结果表明,灌区水资源短缺风险均处于较低风险水平,预测结果与灌区现状的开发利用程度、缺水量相符,该模型具有一定的可操作性和实用性,并为区域水资源规划和管理提供决策依据。The risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period for reoccurrence and risk level are defined as the indexes for evaluation of the water shortage risk of regional resources. A new model for evaluation of the water shortage is put forward in this paper based on the set pair analysis （SPA） and the variable fuzzy sets（VFS） theory. The suggested method is used to evaluate the water shortage risk of Zhanghe irrigation region in Hubei province in the current year, 2010 and 2020. The result shows that the water shortage risk of Zhanghe irrigation region is at a low level. The prediction results are in line with the situation about the level of exploitation and utilization and shortage of water. This model is operative and practical and can be applied to evaluate water shortage.

关 键 词：集对分析 可变模糊集 SPA—VFS评价模型 水资源短缺 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]